Re: Any recent predictions for routing table growth?

From: Bradley Freeman (no email)
Date: Tue Nov 04 2008 - 11:59:19 EST

  • Next message: Niels Bakker: "Re: Sprint v. Cogent, some clarity & facts"

    Thank you very much David, the Routing Growth estimates is exactly the
    research I was after.

    2008/11/4 David Andersen <>

    > Hey, Brad - the latest I know of are ours, but I'm possibly out of date:
    >
    > http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~dga/papers/aip-sigcomm2008-abstract.html>
    >
    > Look in section 4.1. The #s were from routeviews, June 30, 2008. The
    > gist:
    >
    > June 2008: 247K entries
    > Growth rate: 17% per year
    >
    > So - June 2009: 288k
    >
    > There's an embarrassing typo in the formula in the paper - it says "2.07 *
    > 10^4" as the base, when it's obvious that it means 2.47 * 10^5. Sigh. I'll
    > get that corrected. :)
    >
    > Also note that our #s differ a bit from, say, CIDR report since we used
    > routeviews as our baseline. If you use the june 6, 2008 CIDR report as your
    > starting point, which starts at 267k, the 17% exponential growth would
    > predict that the October 31, 2008 CIDR report would report 284k prefixes;
    > in reality, it reported 286. So, reasonably close. But you want to start
    > with the # of prefixes that YOU observe, since that's going to be a little
    > different depending on your vantage point.
    >
    > Plug in:
    >
    > STARTING_NUM_PREFIXES * e^(NUM_DAYS_ELAPSED * 0.0004253)
    >
    > e.g., 267000 * e^(147 * 0.0004253)
    >
    > and you'll have a pretty decent prediction unless things change course. :)
    >
    >
    > On Nov 3, 2008, at 6:38 PM, Brad Freeman wrote:
    >
    > Hi,
    >>
    >> I am looking for some recent estimates of future IPv4 & IPv6 routing table
    >> growth, the most recent reliable estimate I can find was done by Vince
    >> Fuller in his presentation in March 2007, is there any newer or
    >> alternative
    >> figures out?
    >>
    >> Thanks
    >>
    >> Bradley
    >>
    >>
    >


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