Re: Any recent predictions for routing table growth?

From: David Andersen (no email)
Date: Tue Nov 04 2008 - 10:13:50 EST

  • Next message: Patrick W. Gilmore: "Re: Sprint v. Cogent, some clarity & facts"

    Hey, Brad - the latest I know of are ours, but I'm possibly out of date:

    http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~dga/papers/aip-sigcomm2008-abstract.html

    Look in section 4.1. The #s were from routeviews, June 30, 2008. The
    gist:

    June 2008: 247K entries
    Growth rate: 17% per year

    So - June 2009: 288k

    There's an embarrassing typo in the formula in the paper - it says
    "2.07 * 10^4" as the base, when it's obvious that it means 2.47 *
    10^5. Sigh. I'll get that corrected. :)

    Also note that our #s differ a bit from, say, CIDR report since we
    used routeviews as our baseline. If you use the june 6, 2008 CIDR
    report as your starting point, which starts at 267k, the 17%
    exponential growth would predict that the October 31, 2008 CIDR report
    would report 284k prefixes; in reality, it reported 286. So,
    reasonably close. But you want to start with the # of prefixes that
    YOU observe, since that's going to be a little different depending on
    your vantage point.

    Plug in:

    STARTING_NUM_PREFIXES * e^(NUM_DAYS_ELAPSED * 0.0004253)

    e.g., 267000 * e^(147 * 0.0004253)

    and you'll have a pretty decent prediction unless things change
    course. :)

    On Nov 3, 2008, at 6:38 PM, Brad Freeman wrote:

    > Hi,
    >
    > I am looking for some recent estimates of future IPv4 & IPv6 routing
    > table
    > growth, the most recent reliable estimate I can find was done by Vince
    > Fuller in his presentation in March 2007, is there any newer or
    > alternative
    > figures out?
    >
    > Thanks
    >
    > Bradley
    >




  • Next message: Patrick W. Gilmore: "Re: Sprint v. Cogent, some clarity & facts"





    Hosted Email Solutions

    Invaluement Anti-Spam DNSBLs



    Powered By FreeBSD   Powered By FreeBSD