From: Iljitsch van Beijnum (no email)
Date: Mon May 05 2008 - 04:55:31 EDT
On 2 mei 2008, at 20:51, Mike Leber wrote:
> Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days
> projected
> until IPv4 exhaustion:
> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
Unfortunately that won't load for me over IPv6, path MTU black hole...
> ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding. Do people do
> that?
Since the only people who can get really large blocks of IP addresses
are the people who already have really large blocks of IP addresses,
the eventual distribution of large blocks won't differ much depending
on whether there will be a rush or not. Obviously the 99% of requests
that use up only 17% of the space each year are of no importance in
the grand scheme of things.
I was about to write that 1000 days is too optimistic/pessimistic, but
(after trying to compensate for ARIN's strange book keeping practices)
it looks like in 2006, 163 million addresses were given out, 196 in
2007. If the next few years also see an increase of 20% in yearly
address use, then 1000 days sounds about right.
That means we'd have to use up 235 million addresses this year, while
so far we're at 73 million, which puts us on track for 219 million. So
maybe it will be 1050 days (which leaves us exactly a million
addresses per day).
BTW, about the India thing: they should take their cue from China,
which only had a few million addresses at the turn of the century but
is now in the number two spot at ~ 150 million addresses. (Comparison:
the US holds 1.4 billion, India 15 million, just behind Sweden which
has 17 million.) China is now the biggest user of new address space.
http://www.bgpexpert.com/addressespercountry.php
http://www.bgpexpert.com/ianaglobalpool.php
http://www.bgpexpert.com/addrspace2007.php
(Make it "www.ipv4.bgpexpert..." if you have trouble reaching the site
over v6.)
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