From: William Warren (no email)
Date: Sat May 03 2008 - 23:22:26 EDT
That also doesn't take into account how many /8's are being hoarded by
organizations that don't need even 25% of that space.
Geoff Huston wrote:
> Mike Leber wrote:
>> Since nobody mentioned it yet, there are now less than 1000 days projected
>> until IPv4 exhaustion:
>>
>> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
>
> ....
>
>> ps. 1000 days assumes no rush, speculation, or hoarding. Do people do
>> that?
>>
>> pps. Of course these are provocative comments for amusement. :)
>>
>
>
> I keep on saying: its just a mathematical model, and the way this will play
> out is invariably different from our best guesses. So to say "well there's
> x days to go" is somewhat misleading as it appears to vest this model
> with some air of authority about the future, and that's not a good idea!
>
> IPv4 address allocation is a rather skewed distribution. Most address
> allocations are relatively small, but a small number of them are relatively
> large. Its the the timing of this smaller set of actors who are undertaking
> large deployments that will ultimately determine how this plays out. It
> could be a lot faster than 1000 days, or it could be slower - its very
> uncertain. There could be some "last minute rush." There could be a change
> in policies over remaining address pools as the pool diminishes, or ....
>
> So, yes, the pool is visibly draining and you now can see all the way to
> the bottom. And it looks like there are around 3 years to go ...
> but thats with an uncertainty factor of at least +/- about 1 1/2 years.
>
> regards,
>
> Geoff
>
>
>
>
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